varsha ka purvanuman mausam vibhag to lagata hi hai, jyotish bhi ismen saksham hai. mausam vibhag karoron rupye vyay karta hai, parantu anuman fir bhi galat ho jata hai. jyotish par koi vyay nahin hota, keval grahon ki chal par ganna ki jati hai fir bhi anuman kisi sima tak sahi niklta hai. ganit jyotish ke nimnalikhit sutron ka vishleshan kar varsha ka purvanuman lagaya ja sakta hai.
1. jab surya mesh rashi men pravesh karta hai, us samay ki grah parishad ke adhikariyon ka prabhav
2. surya ka adrra nakshatra men pravesh
3. saptanari chakra, trinari
4. rohini vas
5. grahon ki yuti, drishti v yogon ka prabhav. inke atirikt aur bhi sutra hanai jinka upyog kiya ja sakta hai jaise samay nikas, dvadash nag, sapt vayu, chatushya stambh, varsh stambh, chaturmegh adi. parantu prastut alekh men keval panch sutron ka hi ullekh kiya gaya hai. is varsh vilanb namak sanvatsar chaitra shukla pratipda 9 aprail ko pratah 2 bajakar 24 sekand par aranbh hua.
varsh ka aranbh shukravar ko hone ke karan raja shukra hua. parantu panchang vidvanon ne din ka aranbh shanivar ko hone ke karan shani ko raja mana. yah anusandhan ka vishay ho sakta hai ki raja shukra ko manen ya shani ko. yadi shukra ko raja manane to shukra min rashi men sthit hai jo jal tatva rashi hai. shukra uchch ka hai. islie is varsh uttam varsha ki sanbhavna hai. parantu shani ko raja manen to achchi varsha ki sanbhavna kam hai. is grah parishad men 7 pad krur grahon ko prapt hue hain. tin parshad grah saumya hain.
tin pad shani ko v tin mangal ko prapt hone ke karan kisan, dalit evan samanya jan ko kasht hoga aur nanavidh rogon se janta pareshan rahegi. kahin akal ki sthiti se janta ko vahan se kahin anyatra jane ko vivash hona par sakta hai. is varsh meghesh ka pad mangal ko prapt hai. varahmihir sanhita ke anusar yadi mangal meghesh ho to kahin varsha ki bhari kami aur kahin barh ke karan hani ho sakti hai. kahin varsha n hone se tapman adhik uncha ho sakta hai. varsha adi char stanbhon men jal stambh is bar chaitra shukla pratipda ko revti nakshatra men keval 37 pratishat hai. iske falasvarup is varsh varsha khand rup men arthat kahin kam to kahin jyada hogi. kahin pey jal ki samasya utpann hogi aur bhumigat jal star men bhi kami aegi. surya adrra nakshatra men 22 jun ko 3 bajakar 20 minat par dhanu rashi men rahega aur chandrama mula nakshatra men vrish lagn men pravesh karega.
adrra pravesh lagn vrish aur prithvi tatva sthir rashi men hua hai. lagnesh shukra dvitiya bhav men surya v budh ke sath sthit hai. shukra ast nahin hai. rashish budh trikonesh hai. navansh men shukra vargottam hai tatha mitra rashi men shubh bhav men sthit hai. rahu v mangal shukra par purn prabhav rakhte hain aur vah mangal se purn drisht bhi hai. isse khand varsha ke fir yog bante hain. fir bhi shukra ke balvan hone ke karan khand varsha apna pura prabhav nahin dikha paegi. parantu rahu se pirit guru shatru rashi men aur chandrama navansh men mangal ki rashi men tatha mangal shukra ki rashi men sthit hai. yah sari sthiti khand varsha ki or hi sanket de rahi hai. yadi saptanari chakra ko dekhen to chandrama ‘dahan nari’ men sthit hai. ‘nir nari’’ men budh v shukra ke sath shani sthit hai. isse bhi khand varsha ke hi sanket prapt ho rahe hain.
trinari chakra ke anusar ‘svarg nari’ men panach grah surya, chandra, budh, shukra v shani aur ‘bhumi nari’ men mangal v brihaspati sthit hanai. panch grah ‘svarg nari’ men sthit hone ke karan varsha shighra v bhari ho sakti hai. ‘bhumi nari’ men purush grah mangal v brihaspati ke sthit hone ke karan bhi varsha adhik hone ke sanket milte hain. arthat trinari chakra uttam varsha ke sanket de raha hai. nav meghon men vayu namak megh hone se vayu meghon ko urakar le jaegi, islie varsha kam hogi.
chaturmeghon men ‘sanvartaka’ megh hone ke karan uttam varsha ke sanket prapt ho rahe hain. adrra nakshatra pravesh ke samay surya adrra men arthat chandra stri nakshatra men sthit hai to chandra mula nakshatra arthat surya purush nakshatra men sthit hai. surya-chandra yog ratri mane ho raha hai jo uttam varsha hone ke sanket de raha hai. vrish lagn ratri ko aranbh ho raha haiai. rohini nakshatra ka vas bhi sandhi men hone ke karan varsha men kami ke sanket hain. ukt sabhi sutron ke vishleshan se siddh hota hai ki varsha khandit hogi aur kahin akal to kahin barh ki sthiti utpann hogi.